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MACROECONOMI C CONSEQUENCES OF TARIFFS Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry and Andrew K. Rose
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MACROECONOMI 
C CONSEQUENCES 
OF TARIFFS 
Davide Furceri, 
Swarnali A. Hannan, 
Jonathan D. Ostry 
and Andrew K. Rose 
October 2018 
Abstract 
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response 
functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 
1963‐2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and 
statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases als...
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