Macro-economie 2018-2019
Inhoudsopgave Macro-economie 2018-2019
chapter 1: a tour of the world ........................................................................................................................ 7
1. the crisis........................................................................................................................................................... 7
2. the united states .............................................................................................................................................. 8
3. The Euro Area .................................................................................................................................................. 9
4. China.............................................................................................................................................................. 10
chapter 2: outline ..........................................................................................................................................11
1. Aggregate Output ......................................................................................................................................... 11
FOCUS: real gdp, technological progress, and the price of computers ......................................................... 12
2. The unemployment rate ................................................................................................................................ 13
Focus: unemployment and happiness ........................................................................................................... 13
3. the inflation rate............................................................................................................................................ 14
4. output, unemployement, and the inflation rate: okun’s law and the phillips curve ...................................... 15
5. The short run, the medium run, and the long run ......................................................................................... 16
appendix: the construction of real gdp and chain-type indexes ........................................................................ 16
chapter 3: the goods market .........................................................................................................................17
1. the composition of gdp .................................................................................................................................. 17
2. the demand for goods ................................................................................................................................... 18
3. the determination of equilibrium output....................................................................................................... 19
focus: the lehman bankruptcy, fears of another freat depression, and shifts in the consumption function 20
4. investment equals saving: an alternative way of thinking about goods – market equilibrium ..................... 21
FOCUS: The paradox of saving ....................................................................................................................... 21
5. is the government omnipotent? A warning ................................................................................................... 22
chapter 4: financial markets I ........................................................................................................................23
1. demand for money ........................................................................................................................................ 23
focus: semantic traps: money, income, and wealth ...................................................................................... 23
focus: who holds U.S. currency...................................................................................................................... 24
2. determining the interest rate: I ..................................................................................................................... 25
3. determining the interest rate: II .................................................................................................................... 29
4. the liquidity trap ............................................................................................................................................ 30
focus: the liquidity trap in the united kingdom ............................................................................................. 30
appendix: the determination of the interest rate when people hold both currency and deposit accounts ....... 31
,chapter 5: goods and financial markets – the is-lm model .............................................................................32
1. the goods market and the is relation ............................................................................................................ 32
2. financial markets and the lm relation ........................................................................................................... 33
3. putting the is and the lm relations together.................................................................................................. 34
4. using a policy mix .......................................................................................................................................... 35
focus: the US recession of 2001..................................................................................................................... 36
FOCUS: deficit reduction : good or bad for investment? ............................................................................... 37
5. how does the is-lm model fit the facts? ......................................................................................................... 37
chapter 6: financial markets II .......................................................................................................................38
1. nominal versus real interest rates ................................................................................................................. 38
2. risk and risk premia ....................................................................................................................................... 40
3. the role of financial intermediaries ............................................................................................................... 40
Focus: bank runs ............................................................................................................................................ 41
4. extending the is-LM ....................................................................................................................................... 41
5. from a housing problem to a financial crisis ................................................................................................. 42
chapter 7: the labouR market ........................................................................................................................44
1. a tour of the labour market ........................................................................................................................... 44
focus: the european labour force survey....................................................................................................... 46
2. movements in unemployment ....................................................................................................................... 46
3. wage determination ...................................................................................................................................... 47
FOCUS: Henry Ford and efficiënte lonen ....................................................................................................... 47
4. price determination ....................................................................................................................................... 48
5. The natural rate of unemployment ............................................................................................................... 49
6. where we go from here ................................................................................................................................. 50
appendix: wage- and price setting relations versus labour supply and labour demand ................................... 50
toepassing: NBB Verslag 2018 .......................................................................................................................... 51
chapter 8: the philipps curve: the natural rate of unemployment and inflation .............................................58
1. inflation, expected inflation, and unemployment ......................................................................................... 58
2. the phillips curve and its mutations............................................................................................................... 60
3. the phillips curve and the natural rate of unemployment ............................................................................. 61
FOCUS: theorie ahead of facts: milton friedman and edmund phelps .......................................................... 61
4. a summary and many warnings .................................................................................................................... 61
Focus: changes in the US natural rate of unemployement since 1990.......................................................... 61
APPENDIX: How to go from the Relation between the Price Level, the Expected Price Level, and
Unemployment to a Relation between Inflation, Expected Inflation, and Unemployment .......................... 62
,chapter 9: the is-lm-pc model ........................................................................................................................63
1. the is-lm-pc model ......................................................................................................................................... 63
FOCUS: OKUN’s LAW ..................................................................................................................................... 64
2. dynamics and the medium run equilibrium ................................................................................................... 64
FOCUS: Deflation in the great depression ..................................................................................................... 67
3. fiscal consolidation revisited ......................................................................................................................... 68
4. the effects of an increase in the price of oil ................................................................................................... 68
addition: plummeting oil price and consumer price expectations ................................................................ 69
5. conclusions .................................................................................................................................................... 69
chapter 10: the facts of growth .....................................................................................................................70
toepassing: NBB Verslag 2018 .......................................................................................................................... 70
1. measuring the standard of living................................................................................................................... 72
FOCUS: The construction of PPP numbers .................................................................................................... 72
2. growth in rich countries since 1950 ............................................................................................................... 72
focus: does money lead to happiness? .......................................................................................................... 72
3. a broader look across time and space ........................................................................................................... 73
4. thinking about growth: a primer ................................................................................................................... 73
chapter 11: saving, capital accumulation and output .....................................................................................75
1. interactions between output and capital ...................................................................................................... 75
2. the implications of alternative saving rates .................................................................................................. 75
Focus: Capital Accumulation and Growth in France in the Aftermath of World War II................................. 76
Focus: Social Security, Saving and Capital Accumulation in Europe .............................................................. 78
Addition: Ageing, Contractual Mandatory Retirement, and Slow Growth in Japan ...................................... 79
3. getting a sens of magnitudes ........................................................................................................................ 79
4. physical cersus human capital ....................................................................................................................... 81
appendix: the cobb-douglas production function and the steady state ............................................................ 81
chapter 12: technological progress and economic growth .............................................................................82
1.technological progress and the rate of growth .............................................................................................. 82
2. the determinants of technological progress .................................................................................................. 84
addition: foreign direct investment, technological change, and economic growth ...................................... 84
FOCUS: Management Practices: Another Dimension of Technological Progress .......................................... 84
3. institutions, technological progress, and growth .......................................................................................... 84
FOCUS: The Importance of Institutions: North Korea and South Korea ........................................................ 85
FOCUS: What Is Behind Chinese Growth? ..................................................................................................... 85
4. the facts of growth revisited.......................................................................................................................... 85
appendix: constructing a measure of technological progress ........................................................................... 86
,chapter 13: technological progress: the short, medium and long return ........................................................87
1. productivity, output and unemployment ...................................................................................................... 87
1.1. in the short run ....................................................................................................................................... 87
1.2. medium run ............................................................................................................................................ 88
2. productivity and the natural rate of unemployment .................................................................................... 89
3. technological progress, churning, and distriburion effects........................................................................... 89
FOCUS: job destruction, churning and earnings losses ................................................................................. 90
FOCUS: the long view: technology, education, and inequality ...................................................................... 90
chapter 17: openness in goods and financial markets ....................................................................................92
1. openness in goods markets ........................................................................................................................... 92
FOCUS: kan export het BBP overtreffen? ...................................................................................................... 93
nominale wisselkoers .................................................................................................................................... 93
reele wisselkoers ........................................................................................................................................... 94
2. openness in financial markets ....................................................................................................................... 95
current account ............................................................................................................................................. 95
capital account............................................................................................................................................... 95
FOCUS: GDP versus GNP: the example of kuwait .......................................................................................... 96
3. conclusions and a look ahead ........................................................................................................................ 98
chapter 18: the goods market in an open economy .......................................................................................99
1. the IS relation in the open economy .............................................................................................................. 99
2. equilibrium output and the trade balance................................................................................................... 100
3. increases in demand-domestic or foreign ................................................................................................... 101
fiscal policy revisited .................................................................................................................................... 102
FOCUS: Fiscale stimulus en structurele hervormingen midden negatieve interestvoeten ......................... 102
4. depreciation, the trade balance, and output............................................................................................... 103
FOCUS: the disappearance of current account deficit in euro periphery countries: good or bad news? ... 104
5. looking at dynamics: the J-curve ................................................................................................................. 105
6. saving, investment, and the current account balance ................................................................................. 106
appendix: derivation of the marshall-lerner condition .................................................................................... 106
chapter 19: output, the interest rate, and the exchange rate .......................................................................107
1. equilibrium in the goods markets ................................................................................................................ 107
2. equilibrium in the financial markets ............................................................................................................ 107
3. putting goods and financial markets togheter ............................................................................................ 108
FOCUS: brutale stops, veilige havens en beperkingen van interest parity condition .................................. 108
4. the effects of policy in an open economy .................................................................................................... 109
FOCUS: President Ronald Reagan in VS en regering wou belastingen verlagen met dubbel doel ............. 109
5. fixed exchange rates.................................................................................................................................... 110
FOCUS: German reunification, interest rates, and the EMS ........................................................................ 110
Appendix: fixed exchange rates, interest rates, and capital mobility .............................................................. 110
,chapter 20: exchange rate regimes ..............................................................................................................111
1. medium run ................................................................................................................................................. 111
FOCUS: The return of Britain to the gold standard: Keynes versus Churchill .............................................. 112
2. exchange rate crisis under fixed exchange rates ......................................................................................... 113
FOCUS: De 1992 EMS crisis .......................................................................................................................... 113
3. exchange rate movements under flexible exchange rates .......................................................................... 113
4. choosing between exchange rate regimes .................................................................................................. 114
FOCUS: The Euro – a short history ............................................................................................................... 114
FOCUS: lessen uit Argentijnse “currency board” ......................................................................................... 115
appendix 1: deriving the is relation under fixed exchange rates ..................................................................... 115
appendix 2: the real exchange rate and domestic and foreign real interest rates .......................................... 115
macro-economisce knipperlichten in de EU .................................................................................................116
oprichting EMU: nood aan controle ................................................................................................................ 116
stabiliteits- en groeipact SGP .......................................................................................................................... 116
lopende rekening als % van het bbp ................................................................................................................ 117
wisselkoers ...................................................................................................................................................... 117
Reële effectieve wisselkoers ............................................................................................................................ 118
arbeidskost per output .................................................................................................................................... 119
Huizenprijsindex: evolutie ............................................................................................................................... 119
Schuld private sector als % van BBP ................................................................................................................ 119
Overheidsschuld als % van BBP ....................................................................................................................... 120
Vergelijking van de arbeidsmarktsituatie tussen het BHG en het Vlaams Gewest in 2017 ............................ 120
Activiteitsgraad ............................................................................................................................................... 121
Uitvoering macro-economische onevenwichtigheden .................................................................................... 121
a tour of the book .......................................................................................................................................122
The short run ................................................................................................................................................... 122
chapter 3: the goods market ....................................................................................................................... 122
Chapter 4: financial markets I ...................................................................................................................... 122
chapter 5: goods and financial markets: the is-lm model ........................................................................... 126
chapter 6: financial markets II ..................................................................................................................... 129
the medium-run............................................................................................................................................... 131
chapter 7: labour market ............................................................................................................................. 131
chapter 8: the phillips curve, the natural rate of unemployment and inflation .......................................... 132
chapter 9: putting all markets togheter: from the short run to the medium run ....................................... 133
chapter 17: opennes in goods and financial markets .................................................................................. 134
chapter 18: the goods market in an open economY ................................................................................... 136
chapter 19: output, the interest rate and the exchange rate ...................................................................... 138
chapter 20: exchange rate regimes ............................................................................................................. 139
,gastcollege: how sounds are banks today? - Mathias Dewatripont ..............................................................140
Outline ............................................................................................................................................................. 140
Banking challenges .......................................................................................................................................... 140
1. Regulation ................................................................................................................................................... 140
2.Belgian banks (*: billion €) ........................................................................................................................... 140
2.1 Belgian versus EZ banks ......................................................................................................................... 140
2.2 selected EZ banks................................................................................................................................... 141
2.3 Conlusion ............................................................................................................................................... 141
3. Overcapactity: the digital challenge ............................................................................................................ 141
4. Cross-border mergers: a solution? .............................................................................................................. 141
4.1 Cross-border M&As in Eurozone ........................................................................................................... 141
4.2 Advantages of Cross-border banks ........................................................................................................ 141
4.3 Comments: advantages ......................................................................................................................... 142
4.4 Cost of cross-border banks .................................................................................................................... 142
4.5 Comments: costs ................................................................................................................................... 142
4.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 142
Examenvragen 2018 - juni ...........................................................................................................................143
Open vragen .................................................................................................................................................... 143
Meerkeuzevragen ............................................................................................................................................ 144
Examenvragen 2018 - augustus ...................................................................................................................145
Open vragen .................................................................................................................................................... 145
Meerkeuzevragen ............................................................................................................................................ 145
meerkeuzevragen blackboard .....................................................................................................................146
meerkeuzevragen H1 en H2 ............................................................................................................................ 146
meerkeuzevragen H3....................................................................................................................................... 147
meerkeuzevragen H4....................................................................................................................................... 148
meerkeuzevragen H5....................................................................................................................................... 149
meerkeuzevragen H6....................................................................................................................................... 150
meerkeuzevragen H7....................................................................................................................................... 151
meerkeuzevragen H8....................................................................................................................................... 152
meerkeuzevragen H9....................................................................................................................................... 153
meerkeuzevragen H11..................................................................................................................................... 154
meerkeuzevragen H12..................................................................................................................................... 155
meerkeuzevragen H17 en H18 ........................................................................................................................ 156
meerkeuzevragen H19..................................................................................................................................... 157
meerkeuzevragen H20..................................................................................................................................... 158
meerkeuzevragen met bewerkingen ...........................................................................................................159
overzicht .....................................................................................................................................................172
, CHAPTER 1: A TOUR OF THE WORLD
1. THE CRISIS
Van 2000 tot 2007 heeft de wereldeconomie een aanhoudende groei doorgemaakt.
• In 2007 begonnen de huizenprijzen in de VS te dalen (die sinds 2000 verdubbeld waren), leidend tot aan grote
financiële crisis.
Veel van de hypotheken die tijdens de vorige expansie waren uitgegeven waren van slechte kwaliteit. Veel van de
leners waren niet in staat om de maandelijkse betalingen op hun hypotheek te doen. De banken die de hypotheken
hadden uitgegeven, hadden deze vaak samengebundeld en verpakt tot nieuwe effecten en deze vervolgens
verkocht aan andere banken en beleggers. Deze effecten werden vaak opnieuw tot nieuwe effecten verpakt. Door
deze complexiteit is de daling van de huizenprijzen omgezet in een grote financiëlecrisis.
• Deze financiële crisis leidde tot een grote economische crisis met dalende ‘stock’ prijzen
o In 3de kwartaal van 2008, de US output groei werd negatief en dit bleef ook in 2009.
• Door de handel en financiële kanalen, is de US crisis snel een wereld crisis geworden
1-1 The Crisis
Figure 1-2 Stock prices in the United States, the Euro area, and
emerging economies, 2007–2010
o ‘Euro area’ heeft het moeilijker gehad om
terug te keren na de terugval
o Er was vooral een terugval in advanced
economie
o Groeipas blijft aarzelend
1-1 The Crisis
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Figure 1-1 Output Growth Rates for the World Economy, for Door de handel (import en export daalden) en
Advanced Economies, and for Emerging and Developing Economies,
2000–2014 de financiële kanalen werd de Amerikaanse
crisis snel een wereldcrisis.
Met Output growth rate = economische
groeipercentage
Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 1-5
, 2. THE UNITED STATES 1-2 The United States
•
De Verenigde Staten zijn groot Figure 1-3 The United States, 2014
o Met een productie output van $17,4 biljoen in 2014, goed
voor 23% van de wereldoutput.
• De levensstandaard in de VS is hoog
o De output per persoon is $54.000, wat dicht ligt bij de top.
• Economen kijken naar
o Output groei = de snelheid waarmee output verandert
o Werkloosheidsgraad (unemployment rate) = het aandeel
van de wekrnemers in de economie dat geen werk heeft en
wel opzoek naar werk.
1-2 The United States
o Inflatiegraad = de snelheid waarmee de gemiddelde prijs
van goederen in de economie in de loop van de tijd
toeneemt
• The U.S. economy in 2015 was in decent shape, leaving
much
• ofDethe effects ofinthe
competitiviteit 2008-2009
België is gedaald, wecrisis
staan behind.
nu op de 22ste plaats Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.
• De Amerikaanse economie was in 2015 in goede staat, en liet veel van de gevolgen van de crisis van 2008-2009
achter zich.
Table 1-1 Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in the United
States, 1990–2015
De reële economische sector had negatieve
output growth rate (-1,5).
Dit is een spiegelbeeld van de stijgende
1-2 The United States werkloosheidsgraad.
The federal funds rate — the interest rate the Fed controls —
went from 2.5% in July 2007 to nearly 0% in December 2008.
Toen de crisis begon, probeerde de Fed de
Figure 1-4 The U.S. Federal Funds Rate since 2000
daling van de uitgaven te beperken door de
Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved.
de federal funds rate te verlagen. Dit is de
1-11
rentevoet die de Fed controleert.
Van 2,5% in Juli 2007 naar 0% in december
2008
Hier wordt het moneatair beleid toegepast, nl.
de nominale rentevoet wordt (hier: bijna) op 0
gezet
•
Waarom stopte de Fed bij nul?
Copyright ©2017 Pearson Education, Ltd. All rights reserved. 1-12
o Deze beperking staat bekend als de zero lower bound.
o Als het onder nul zou gaan (negatief), dan gaan de consumenten liever cash geld aanhouden i.p.v.
obligaties, omdat cash geld een rentevoet heeft van 0%. (nominale rente)
1-2 The United States
• Waarom zijn lage rentepercentages een potentieel probleem?
o De lage rente beperkt het vermogen van de Fed om te reageren op verdere negatieve schokken.
o Lage rentetarieven kunnen ertoe leiden dat beleggers buitensporige risico's nemen om hun rendement te
ü Productivity growth is important
vergroten. fornemen
En te veel risico's a sustained increase
kan op zijn beurt aanleiding geven tot wéér een financiële crisis.
in income
• per person. Butis belangrijk
Productiviteitsgroei since 2010, voor eenit has been only
aanhoudende stijgingabout
van het inkomen per persoon, maar sinds 2010 is
half as it was
deze in theongeveer
slechts 1990s. half zo groot als in de jaren 90.
o Als de productiviteit van de economie toeneemt, dan zal de welvaart/levenstandaard stijgen
• De vertraging of ‘slowdown’ van de productiviteitsgroei is alarmerend omdat de levensstandaard, met name voor
ü The slowdown in productivity growth is worrisome because
de armen, niet toeneemt.
the standard ofbijliving
Terwijl especially
een hoge/snelle for the poor
productiviteitsgroei may er
iedereen not
van zal kunnen profiteren, zelfs als er ongelijkheid is. De
increase. armen kunnen minder profiteren dan de rijken, maar ze zien wél nog steeds hun levensstandaardstijgen.
Table 1-2 Labor Productivity Growth, by Decade
