Definition 1 of 48
A cat is put in a box with a poison vial, a hammer, a radioactivity detector and a small bit of
something radioactive (sealed). There is a 50/50 chance that the container will decay releasing
some radioactive material and triggering the detector, which in turn makes the hammer smash
the vial of poison and kill the cat. 50% live; 50% die. According to quantum mechanics the
atoms of radioactive would be in a superposition, where they are both decayed and not (law
of quantum objects). This means that hypothetically the cat is dead and alive a the same time. A
cat however is not a quantum object and therefor cannot be in a superposition. Bringing two
conflicting laws together. (Some say that it is our decision to open and observe that kills the
cat or makes it survive)
Tasseography
Schrodinger's Cat
Sampling error
The Called Shot
Definition 2 of 48
-concerns the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, some pair of them will
have the same birthday. By the pigeonhole principle, the probability reaches 100% when the
number of people reaches 366 (since there are only 365 possible birthdays, excluding
February 29). However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability
with 23 people. These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year
(except February 29) is equally probable for a birthday.This logic has applications, for example
a cryptographic attack called the birthday attack, which uses this probabilistic model to reduce
the complexity of finding a collision for a hash function.
-
Acturial Science
Schrodinger's Cat
The Called Shot
The Birthday Problem
,Definition 3 of 48
-uses statistics to predict outcomes.
-predictive models are often used to detect crimes and identify suspects, after the crime has
taken place.
Standard deviation
Predictive Modelling
Presistance forecasting
Confidence Interval
Definition 4 of 48
-black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that
comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact
with the benefit of hindsight.
-based on an old saying that black swans didn't exist and was rewritten after they were found
in nature.
-The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
1)The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond
the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
2)The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific
methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
3)The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to
uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
The Called Shot
Black Swans
Cassandra
Acturial Science
,Definition 5 of 48
-chiromancy and manteia is the claim of characterisation and foretelling the future through the
study of the palm, also known as palm reading or chirology. The practice is found all over the
world, with numerous cultural variations.
-Criticism of palmistry often rests with the lack of empirical evidence supporting its efficacy.
Scientific literature typically regards palmistry as a pseudoscientific or superstitious belief.
Nate Silver
Palmistry
Retrodiction
Hari Seldon
Definition 6 of 48
- astrological chart or diagram representing the positions of theSun, Moon, planets,
astrological aspects, and sensitive angles at the time of an event, such as the moment of a
person's birth.
-part of chineese religion and is based on the year you are born in
Cleromacy
Horoscope
Nowcasting
Zodiac
, Definition 7 of 48
Fictional Character from Iliad
- her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate someone whose accurate
prophecies are not believed by those around them
- Trying to seduce her, Appollo gave her prophecy powers - but when she refused he spat into
her mouth and cursed her so that no one would believe her prophecies.
or
- she fell asleep at a temple and snakes (symbols of knowledge) whispered in her ears so she
could hear the future.
- She predicted the fall of Troy and death of Agamennon, no one believed her. Ajax dragged
her from Athena's altar and raped her. Athena sank most of Greek ships. Later she fell into
Agamennons possesion and was murdered with him.
Hari Seldon
Cassandra
Sybil Trelawny
Causation
Definition 8 of 48
(~1989)
-NYT Predictor
-After Nate Silver moved from NYT, Nate Cohn was hired as his replacement and while he is
not as famous, has held up a good record
Correlation
Nate Silver
Horoscope
Nate Cohn
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