INTL4440H Midterm || with Error-free Solutions.
Penkovsky correct answers Possibly the CIA's greatest Humint asset ever, a "walk in", the man
was a colonel in the GRU during the '50s and '60s who provided detailed technical information
on Soviet equipment because of his moral objections to Stalin and others. His information on
MRBMs and SRBMs helped the US to confirm the presence of Soviet nukes in Cuba in 1962.
His last message before he was caught was intended to start WWIII between the two
superpowers but was ignored by Kennedy.
A walk-in spy from Soviet Union that aided the US by giving them technical manuals on the
status of missile sites in Cuba. Also provided information on the state of Soviet strategic forces,
indicating overwhelming US superiority
Was initially rejected by US → problem with HUMINT trying to decide why walk-ins have
simply walked in, do they have other motives? Went to US first and then to the UK, who verified
him as legitimate.
Later, falsely told U.S. that the USSR would strike before he was captured by the KGB; take
everyone down with him.
Jointness correct answers A thoughtful blending of all the "ints" into comprehensive reports.
Requires the sharing and integration of intelligence findings. Its another way to say "all-source
fusion" in military jargon
Intelligence Cycle correct answers New requirements → Planning and direction → Collection →
Processing → Analysis and production → Dissemination
Analytic Stovepipes correct answers Refers to the tendency of organizations to direct and
produce their own analysis without coordination and cooperation with other intel agencies. Cited
as a prime cause of the 9/11 failure. Betts cites this as one downside of analytic fusion.
The three all-source analytical groups are: The CIA, DIA, and INR (an intelligence bureau in the
U.S. State Department tasked with analyzing information)
CIA Directorate of Intelligence
Defense Intelligence Agency Directorate of Intelligence
State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
All three exist to serve different policy makers
Have a wary view of efforts by officials who have community wide responsibilities to deal with
the three groups as linked parts
They each have a clear preference for their individual responsibilities in direct support for their
particular policy maker
Worried about the reputation of their own branch and jobs within them (cultural)
The DIA and INR both answer to Cabinet level officials, which leads to an unwillingness to cede
authority to the non-Cabinet DNI.
Gorillas in the Stovepipes correct answers Refers to the parochialism of the directors of the intel
agencies. Most of them are looking to hold onto turf, and keep their budgets from decreasing and
oppose efforts at coordination and reform. The biggest gorilla is the DoD who often refuses to
cooperate or reform based on the need for SMO
,GEOINT (IMINT) correct answers Consists of images taken from reconnaissance equipment
such as satellites, drones, spy planes, etc. It is very costly but also very valuable especially to
military commanders and those trying to verify treaties. The discovery of missiles in Cuba was
undeniably confirmed by Geoint/pictures taken from a U2 Spy plane. Can be defeated by
weather, and good denial/deception campaigns (Indian nuclear tests in 1998) NGA is tasked with
collecting Geoint while NRO maintains and launches the equipment necessary to collect it.
Disadvantages: Doesn't measure intentions of people. Deception operations. More and more
operations are going underground. Geoint also refers to satellite capabilities to provide real time
battlefield intelligence. Case study- the Chinese/Pakistan missile purchases Johnson did for
Clinton.
SIGINT correct answers Signals intelligence; code breaking from cables; phone conversations;
traffic analysis; chatter. separating Noise from Chatter, etc. ex: Russia changes their codes every
24 hours. SIGINT can be broken into two basic subcategories: communications intelligence and
electronics intelligence.
MASINT correct answers Measures and signatures (good for locating nuclear manufacturing
sites). This is extremely expensive and complicated to perform.
Ex: sending out chemical emissions
OSINT correct answers Open source intelligence. Refers to information that can be found out in
the 'open' for public consumption. Newspapers and technical magazines have long been prime
sources of intelligence even though they are not secret. The internet and the information
revolution have brought a massive amount of information into the open if someone can search
through the noise to find it. Some scorn it because they are too enamored with James Bond
stealing secrets but it can be very valuable. During the Cold War the CIA eagerly read the Soviet
military daily Red Star to try to glean intel about Soviet equipment, doctrine, and intentions. Is as
much of 95% of our intelligence. Advantage: accessible. Disadvantages: Language barriers, not
nearly enough people speak Farsi, etc. The collection can be biased. Deception (in cold war we
put false articles in scientific journals). Some areas aren't as open as others. This is the basic
building block for secret intelligence.
TECHINT correct answers Basically everything besides HUMINT. Refers to the INTS that rely
on machinery to collect intelligence. It is far and away the most expensive part of the intelligence
budget, especially satellites. The IC has been criticized for relying too much on these dazzling
platforms and not having enough assets on the ground.
HUMINT correct answers Refers to human assets in other countries who spy on their
governments and report back to US case officers. The CIA is generally in charge of HUMINT. It
has an uneven reputation. Its greatest advantage is that unlike any other 'INT,' HUMINT can
provide information on the intentions of an opponent. But human assets are harder to recruit and
manage than other INT's, are often unsavory, and can be notoriously unreliable. One can get the
Oleg Penkovsky's or the 'Curveballs' and it is sometimes hard to tell the difference.
Bett's "Enemies" correct answers Outside, innocent, and inherent.
, Three enemies of intelligence (note that these are all unavoidable enemies)
Outside -- "our national enemies--the foreign adversaries whose capabilities we must divine,
whose plans we must thwart, and whose allies here must be caught."
Innocent -- "organizational shortcomings that cause failure, including institutional myopia,
negligence in standard procedures, gaps in coverage, inefficiencies caused by organizational
redundancies, the lack of particular skill sets--the kinds of things that bureaucracies, particularly
government bureaucracies, do or don't do out of institutional legacies or laziness. Betts finds that
most of the debate about intelligence focuses on this category of enemies: if we hire better
people and organize them properly, it is widely assumed, we can prevent intelligence failures."
However, "he is skeptical about the efficacy of organizational reform in eliminating failure not
only because intelligence is genuinely challenged by the guile of outside enemies but because of
inherent enemies."
Inherent -- "the limitations that are part of the human condition and that exist in the nature of the
practice of intelligence itself. They 'pervade the process no matter who is involved, and they
intrude time and time again. Although not immune to defeat, they are extraordinarily resistant.'"
Intelligence Producer correct answers An intelligence professional (usually an analyst) who
produces intelligent reports for a consumer (President, member of Congress).
Sherman Kent correct answers "Father of Intelligence Analysis." Thought a high wall should
exist between IC and policymakers. Chief of CIA's Office of National Estimates 1952-67.
Richard Helms correct answers DCI 1966-73 (LBJ-Nixon); argued for policy neutrality for the
IC;
Really strove to find consensus in analysis. Involved in Operation CHAOS. Called the 6 day war.
"Helms' only source of strength was the president"
Robert Gates correct answers DCI under Bush, Sr. Only DCI to rise up the rankings from analyst
position. Said intelligence should be 'actionable' and relevant to the policy maker as opposed to a
high 'wall'.
R. James Woolsey correct answers DCI 1993-95. Only gave policy opinion to POTUS in private,
if asked (adherent to "the wall"), surge vs. global presence and was in favor of surge policy.
SMO correct answers Support for Military Operations-refers to the tasking of intelligence to find
out all relevant information for helping the military succeed in planning and executing war plans
and battlefield operations. Roughly 80% of the intelligence budget is spent on the military and
most of that goes to getting intelligence opponents military capabilities, deployments, doctrine,
etc. It has been suggested that SMO is too highly emphasized at the expense of intelligence that
may keep wars from happening. The military is loath to give up any intelligence assets for fear of
a reduction in SMO.
Competitive Analysis correct answers Team A/Team B exercise is an example -- assign groups
of analysts to come up with different analyses. The idea is to get better analysis by making sure
