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Risk Assessment - Summary, Tilburg University

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A summary of the course Risk Assessment. The summary consists of the lectures given and the papers. If you have any questions, you can message me :)

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  • June 10, 2024
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  • 2023/2024
  • Summary
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Lecture 1
Definition
 Probability calculation that a harmful behavior or event will occur, and involves an
assessment about the frequency of the behavior (or event), its likely impact and who it will
affect
 The attempt to predict the likelihood of future offending in order to identify individuals in
need of intervention
 Risk assessment is also
o Risk management: interventions to manage the risk or to reduce risk
 Why?




History
 1876 – Lombroso
o Criminals have certain characteristics
 Large protruding jaws
 Deeper eyes
 Low forehead
 Large chin
 High cheekbones
 Hawklike nose
 1928 – Burgess: first risk assessment tool
o Developed tools to determine the risk of re-offense of offenders being released from
the Illinois prison system
o Actuarial in nature
o Marital status, criminal and employment history and institutional misconduct
o Based on analyses of data for 3000 individuals paroled in Chicago
o 76% high risk status recidivated within 5 years
 1950 – no problem
 1960 – Baxstrom
o 967 dangerous psychiatric patients transferred to regular psychiatric hospitals
o 121 patients subsequently released into society
o Followed-up Steadman & Cocozza (1978)
o After 4 years of follow-up
 2,7% sent back to forensic psychiatric hospital
 Patients in society
 17% arrested
 7% convicted
 1970 – doubt

, o The state of the art regarding predictions of violence is very unsatisfactory. The ability
of psychiatrists or any other professionals to reliably predict future violence is
unproved
o Psychiatry and the presumption of expertise: flipping coins in the courtroom
 Expertise of the expert
 2 groups of subjects
o Teachers
o Experienced forensic psychiatrists
 Questions regarding recidivism based on file information
 Results
o IRR teachers low
o But better than IRR psychiatrists
o Averagely large similarity between psychiatrists and teachers
o The more information available, the more conservative in
judgment
 1980 – Monahan
o Psychiatrists and psychologists are accurate in no more than 1 out of 3 predictions of
violent behavior
 1990 – research RNR model
o Martien Philipse
o Dutch TBS system enjoyed great respect in the world at that time
 Praised for their innovative approach to forensic patients
 Research: how the Dutch behavioral experts from the forensic field made
their risk assessments in practice
 None of the predictors suggested by the clinicians were predictive
 There were also no link at all between the clinical assessment of relapse risk
and actual recidivism
 2000 – integration in to practice

Risk, need and responsivity model – Andrews & Bonta
 Evidence based practice: interventions should be based on results from scientific research
into the effectiveness of those interventions
 Risk principle = offenders with a higher risk of recidivism benefit most from more intensive
treatment
o Who to treat?
 Match the treatment intensity with the client’s risk of recidivism
o The risk of recidivism is central; not the disorder
o Misalignment of treatment intensity may increase the risk of recidivism
o When you apply the same treatment for high and low risk groups, the treatment
effect is greater in high risk groups
 Need principle = only those factors associated with reduction of recidivism should be
addressed during treatment
o What to treat?
 Focus on the treatment on the criminogenic needs that are actually related
to criminal behavior and therefore require attention
 Each individual has his own combination of factors that led to the crime
 These criminogenic needs are the dynamic risk factors related to the crime
 Dynamic risk factors are modifiable by treatment interventions, so focus of
treatment is on these high dynamic risks
o Why?

,  Adequate treatment of criminogenic needs is associated with a 19%
reduction in recidivism; targeting an intervention to non-criminogenic needs
is associated with a slight increase of 1%
 Responsivity principle = interventions should be tailored to the offender’s characteristics,
such as motivational level, personal circumstances and learning style
o How to treat?
 Match the treatment and the type of interventions to the client’s learning
style and learning abilities
o External responsivity = type of treatment, characteristics of the therapist, availability
of adequate interventions, possibilities offered by the treatment environment
(stability, quality of life, mobility)
o Internal responsivity = take into account the individual characteristics of a client:
intellect, personality, disorder, treatment motivation, learning style
o Responsive treatment is associated with a 23% reduction in recidivism

Criminogenic needs – central 8
 Divided by big four and moderate four
 History of antisocial behavior
o Risk: early and ongoing involvement in a number and variety of antisocial acts in a
variety of settings
o Dynamic need: work on non-criminal alternative behaviors in high-risk situations
 Antisocial personality pattern
o Risk: thrill seeking, low self-control, restless, aggressive
o Dynamic need: work on problem-solving skills, self-management skills, anger
management and coping skills
 Antisocial cognitions
o Risk: attitudes, values, beliefs and rationalization that support criminal behavior;
cognitive-emotional conditions of anger, resentment and pride; criminal vs anti-
criminal identity
o Dynamic need: reduce antisocial cognitions, recognize risky ways of thinking and
feeling, develop alternative and less risky ways of thinking and feeling, adopt a
renewed and/or anti-criminal identity
 Antisocial peers
o Risk: close contacts with criminal others and relative social isolation with non-
criminal others; direct social support for crime
o Dynamic need: reduce contacts with criminal others, build contacts/links with non-
criminal others
 Family/marital relationships
o Risk: two important elements are: education and/or care, and control and/or
supervision
o Dynamic need: reduce conflict, build positive relationships, improve control and
oversight
 School and/or job
o Risk: low levels of achievement and satisfaction at school and/or work
o Dynamic need: improve performance, rewards and satisfaction
 Prosocial recreational activities
o Risk: low levels of engagement and satisfaction in non-criminal leisure activities
o Dynamic need: improve engagement, rewards and satisfaction
 Substance abuse
o Risk: abuse of alcohol and/or drugs

, o Dynamic need: reduce drug abuse, reduce personal and interpersonal support for
addictive behavior, develop alternatives to drug abuse

Non-criminogenic needs
 Less research done and insufficiently proven
 Relevant non-criminogenic needs for general offending behavior are
o Self-esteem
o Emotional problems
o Psychiatric disorder
o Health
 These dynamic factors are not directly related to recidivism reduction but can indirectly
contribute to reducing dynamic risk
 Other (non-?)criminogenic needs that according to Serin et al. (2013) appear to be directly
related to recidivism reduction
o Decrease in negative emotions
o Successful treatment process from the client himself

Lecture 2
Predictive validity




 Sensitivity = proportion of recidivists
previously assessed as high risk
o Retrospective measure
 Specificity = proportion of non-recidivists
previously assessed as low risk
o Retrospective measure
 Area under the curve (AUC)
o Receiver operating
characteristics (ROC)-analysis
o Used to classify future recidivists
vs non recidivists
o AUC = 1,00 = perfect
discrimination = perfect prediction
o Interpretation (Rice & Harris)
 .56 - .64 = small
 .64 – 71 = moderate
 .71 > = strong
o 2 types of information needed
 Risk scores
 A dichotomous outcome
o Most commonly reported measure in the literature
o Retrospective measure
o Chance that a random recidivist gets a higher score than a random non-recidivist
o An AUC value is therefore the trade-off between
 Sensitivity (true positive rate
 1 – specificity

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