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Resume readers socialdemography
Chapter 2: size and evolution of the population (chapter 5)
“Demographic transition theory” by Dudley Kirk
- Mortality decline easier to explain than fertility decline (Landry: egoistical
motive, Thompson)
- Forerunners: Thompson, Landry ‘la revolution démographique’, Carr-
Saunders
Notenstein :
- Typology (3) of populations as an introduction to a review of the prospects
for the world population growth
- thought that the populations of Western and Central Europe would peak in
about 1950 and decline thereafter, Southern Europe in 1970
- assumed that fertility would fall more steeply than it did in fact
- criticism:
o too much attention to socio-economic factors as causes of the
decline and paid insufficient attention to cultural factors
o the assertion that mortality decline always preceded fertility decline
(≠Fr, Eng)
o in several European regions mortality decline was not tied closely to
socio-economic modernization (economic growth), but rather to
diffusion within a specific cultural or linguistic region (ex Walloon
region and Flanders)
Coale
- greatest strength of demographic transition is the prediction that the
transition will occur in every society
- greatest weakness its inability to forecast the precise threshold required
for fertility to fall reason: > 1 pre-condition for a decline in marital
fertility
o (1) Fertility must be within the calculus of conscious choice
o (2) Reduced fertility must be perceived as advantageous
o (3) Effective techniques of fertility reduction must be available.
Non-European countries: regularities
- mortality has declined first and has been followed by declining fertility
population growth
- more rapid transition than in Western Europe
- the transition has occurred under strikingly diverse socio-economic
conditions
3 stages mortality decline
1. 1750-1850:
, oRising incomes1
oModern state reduction deaths from wars, famines, epidemics
oStability improvements in agriculture which reflected in improved
nutrition, resistance to infectious diseases, hygiene etc.
2. 1860-WW1:
o Revolution in medicine
first: child mortality , later: infant mortality
decline in mortality from diseases (diarrhea, tuberculosis)
Interbellum: gains in medicine, health education etc.
3. During WW2-now:
o Antibiotics reduction in epidemic and contagious diseases
o more difficult to reduce: mortality from organic diseases (ex.
diseases of the circulatory system, cancers)
o the adoption of modern lifestyles has not been responsible for
increased mortality from degenerative diseases. They were simply
less evident earlier, because of the high incidence of contagious
diseases
Connection mortality and fertility decline
- mortality decline cause of fertility decline?
- Connection: reduced mortality rise in living standards, psychological
effects
Causality fertility decline 1DT
1. Economic factors (rational choice)
o dominance in the early formulations of transition theory
(modernization changes the economics of childbearing and
makes it seen to be economically disadvantageous)
2. Cultural
o The timing of the transition is strongly influenced by linguistic and
cultural boundaries, less strongly by modernization factors
o Importance of indicators of social development (ex. women’s
education)
o transition more closely connected with the diffusion of new ideas
than with changes in micro-economic forces
Westernization theory (Caldwell) (>< modernization)
o primary force of change = Westernization: includes ideas of
progress, secularization, mass education, and mastery over
the environment economic development (ex Bangladesh)
o export of Westernization is the predominance of the nuclear family
with its concentration on expenditure for one's children
Cultural differences theory (Lesthaeghe) 2DT
1
The existence of an overall income effect on mortality has been demonstrated,
especially at lower income levels, but these tend to diminish at higher average levels of
income
, o differences in fertility levels and their speed of change are related to
differences in religious beliefs and practices and in the degree of
secularism, materialism, and individuation
o Economic prosperity creates a new hierarchy of needs in a tree-like
structure: a trunk of basic physiological needs above which grow a
diversity of branches or 'higher' needs (ex. psychological non-
material needs)
o Western Europe: changes directed towards individualism and
concepts of self-fulfillment (secularization and freedom of choice)
link with fertility not clearly defined
3. Historical
o Focus on the culture of reproduction as a factor in the fertility
decline or lack of it
o State intervention (legal age for marriage & working,compulsory
schooling) transformation in labour market (women), cultural
redefinition of family responsibilities removal of children's role as
economic contributors, and increasing cost of children related to
fertility decline
o Changes in value: emphasized the quality of children, rather than
their quantity
4. Role of government
o importance in the decline of both mortality and fertility (see above)
o most visible aspect: the attitude taken by government and political
leaders on population policy family planning programs (ex. China
1-child policy, Sweden baby box)
5. Role of diffusion
o the widespread adoption of family planning (fertility control) cannot
be explained without assuming a major diffusion of new ideas and
techniques, notably in its rapid adoption within linguistic and
cultural areas in which levels of modernization differ widely
o control of fertility is as much a group decision as a decision of an
individual or couple
o in the modern world fertility declines are more closely associated
with the diffusion of an idea than with micro-economic forces.
6. Contraceptive technology
Chapter 3: population structure
“The masculinization of births” by C. Guilmoto
Skewed birth rates: masculinization of births since late 1980s demographers
need to revise some of their assumptions
Undetected due to measurement issues
- sex is rarely expressed in the same manner from one discipline and world
region to the next
- Under-registration by sex: male births gain more attention in recording
process
- Best data sources civil registration but in many parts of the world statistics
are either unavailable or unreliable
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