‘Evaluate the view that the campaign is the primary factor in explaining the outcome of recent
presidential elections’ (30)
The result of elections can be affected by several factors and it is important to evaluate each of
them. Elections are most significantly affected by the candidates and turnout, but it can also
be affected by the legacy of the nomination system, including the invisible primary and
primaries, and the presidential campaign, including the October Surprise, TV debates and
campaign finance. The campaign is not usually important- the national poll numbers stay
roughly the same from the end of the campaigns to election day. The only exceptions were in
2016, when it harmed Hillary Clinton, and possibly in 2020 as catching coronavirus may have
harmed Trump.
Presidential campaigns take place 6-8 weeks before the election day, but in reality, the
campaign really begins 3-6 months before this when the results of the primaries become
obvious. Billions are spent in campaign finance in an attempt to persuade voters- Biden raised
almost $400 million in only one month in September. Very often the campaign makes little
difference: the national poll numbers stay roughly the same from the end of the NPCs to
election day. In 2008, Obama was ahead of McCain and this remained the same, and in 2012
he mainly stayed ahead of Romney. The campaign also involves TV debates, where they often
make little difference. Poor debaters who ‘lose’ the debate to superior debaters are often not
harmed by this because this is what people expected to happen anyway, so no ‘new’
information emerged, making no difference to the outcome of the presidential elections. This
was shown by Trump in both 2016 and 2020, where Clinton succeeded but Trump still won the
election although he was aggressive, insulting and did not answer a single question, and
continued this in 2020- but this may have harmed Trump this time as he lost the election.
Campaign finance is donations to campaigns to pay for TV advertising which is very expensive-
Hillary Clinton raised $1.4 Billion, while Trump raised over $900 million. Campaign finance is
important in influencing the result of presidential elections in general, the candidate with the
most money wins. However, Trump won in 2016 despite spending significantly less campaign
finance than Hillary, mostly due to the free media reporting he got from Tweeting outrageous
things. On the other hand, the campaign made a difference to the outcome of the election, due
to the ‘October Surprise in 2016 and 2020. The announcement from James Comey that the FBI
was reopening their investigation into Hillary’s use of a private email server when she was
Secretary of State significantly harmed her- many Democrats, including Hillary herself, blame
James Comey for Trump’s victory. In 2020, Trump caught the COVID and lost some support
from voters because he claimed it was a fake virus and made him look weak. TV debates may
make some difference, as the first one, in 1960, was said to change the result of the election:
JFK ‘beat’ Nixon and went on to win the election (however, this is not recent or relevant any
more). Romney ‘won’ the first debate in 2012 and went ahead in the opinion polls and for the
first time, Obama’s victory looked in doubt (however, Romney still lost the election). Campaign
finance is important, as said by Mark Hanna, a political strategist, who famously quoted “there
are two things that are important in politics: the first thing is money, and I can’t remember what
the second one is.” Many recent winners outspent their opponents, in 2004, 2008, 2000 and
2020 all the winning candidates out-raised their opponent. Overall, the campaign rarely makes
any difference to the national poll numbers and the presidential election, shown by Obama in
2008 and 2012, although the ‘October Surprise’ can damage their campaign. TV debates also
rarely make a difference as shown by Trump who became president in 2016 although he was a
very poor debater. But this may have harmed him in 2020. Campaign finance can be important,
however Clinton still out-raised Trump and lost.
The candidates and turnout are the most significant factor in explaining the outcome of recent
presidential elections. Turnout is important in determining the outcome of US elections because
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