Instagram: ECOsummaries DM me for 20% discount!
Summary for the course 'Financial Statement Analysis & Valuation'. This summary was written in order to study for the final. Everything you need to know is available in this summary.
Instagram: ECOsummaries DM me for 20% discount!
,Lecture 1 – Valuation drivers
Introduction:
Firm value: discounted sum of expected future cash flows (economic value)
Financial statements are not used to derive a single true/false equity value
→ Does not exist!
Accounting: language to measure and communicate firm performance
Main goal: find out if economic value is equal to the market value (comparing opinions)
Three steps of equity valuation:
1. Understand the past
2. Forecasting the future
3. Valuation
Valuation:
NPV: net present value
Value: present value of the expected FCFs
Discounted Dividend Model (DDM): uses dividends as main parameter (rarely used)
Problems:
- Dividend is a choice, and does not reflect performance correctly.
→ E.g., paying out dividends, while still making losses.
- Dividends are discretionary (avoid cutting dividends in times of losses as this is a bad look)
- Many firms don’t even pay dividends
- Dividend irrelevance theorem
Earnings-based valuation:
Graphical representation:
3
, Mathematical representation:
(1) Price:
(2) Clean surplus relation: change in shareholders equity
→ = Common equity (CE) last period + Net income (NI) – dividends (DIV)
(3) Dividends:
(4) Plugging (3) into (1):
Note: past information (CE0) + future information (expected difference between realized
return on equity (NIt) minus expected rate of return (r * CEt-1))
Return on equity (ROE) = net income / common equity = NI / CE
Dirty surplus: some income items are not in the income statement but are directly in the
statement of changes in equity.
Valuation drivers:
1. Investment growth (g): hidden in the change of CE, which can grow or decrease.
- Profitability is not the only important thing
Example: 10% return on $100 is less impressive than 10% on $1.000.000
- Investments can be cyclical, regional & structural.
2. Risk (r): compare to risk-free rate to see if any value is created (realized return – Rf > 0)
- Discount rate (r) is measure of uncertainty as we don’t know expected values 100% sure.
→ Use asset pricing models to determine value of discount rate (r).
3. Profitability (ROE): return on equity
- Similar to the return on investments (ROI), but then for equity investors.
- Hence, ROE is the rate of return that equity owner receives.
→ ROE must be higher than the opportunity costs (r) in order to generate value.
→ ROE > r
Constant growth:
Assumptions:
1. Constant ROE
2. Capital grows by g each year
4
The benefits of buying summaries with Stuvia:
Guaranteed quality through customer reviews
Stuvia customers have reviewed more than 700,000 summaries. This how you know that you are buying the best documents.
Quick and easy check-out
You can quickly pay through credit card or Stuvia-credit for the summaries. There is no membership needed.
Focus on what matters
Your fellow students write the study notes themselves, which is why the documents are always reliable and up-to-date. This ensures you quickly get to the core!
Frequently asked questions
What do I get when I buy this document?
You get a PDF, available immediately after your purchase. The purchased document is accessible anytime, anywhere and indefinitely through your profile.
Satisfaction guarantee: how does it work?
Our satisfaction guarantee ensures that you always find a study document that suits you well. You fill out a form, and our customer service team takes care of the rest.
Who am I buying these notes from?
Stuvia is a marketplace, so you are not buying this document from us, but from seller ecosummaries. Stuvia facilitates payment to the seller.
Will I be stuck with a subscription?
No, you only buy these notes for $7.59. You're not tied to anything after your purchase.
