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POS3713 Midterm 1 – Study Guide Questions and Notes from Class
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POS3713 Midterm 1 – Study Guide Questionsand Notes from Class
POS3713 Midterm 1 – Study Guide Questions
1. How do we know what we know?
a. Epistemology – how you know what you know
b. Ways of knowing something
i. Precedent – look at the past
ii. Deferring to authority – look to scholars and scientists
iii. Intuition/Common Sense – what does your gut say
iv. The only thing that stands up time and time again is:
observation
2. What do political scientists do, exactly?
a. Look at relationships between individuals
b. Why analyze relationships?
i. Want to understand as much of the political world as possible
ii. Rely on observation
iii. Design research to collect data
c. Political scientists develop causal theories about the political world
and test them scientifically (the scientific method)
i. Create theory
ii. Form testable hypothesis
iii. Carry out research to test hypothesis
iv. Evaluate research
v. Modification and extension
3. What is the difference between descriptive and causal inference?
a. Causal Inference: Learning something about how the world works
that we didn't know before
i. Unknown causal relation between two or more variables
b. Descriptive Inference: Learning something about the state of the
world we didn't know before
i. Unknown fact about a single variable
1. Inference is by definition uncertain
4. Which form of inference are political scientists most
interested in?
a. Political scientists are most interested in causal inferences.
5. Is the social world deterministic or probabilistic? Why do we care
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, about this distinction?
a. Deterministic – relationships such that if some cause occurs,
then the effect will occur with certainty
b. Probabilistic – such that increases in X are associated with
increases (or decreases) in the probability of occurring, but those
probabilities are not certainties
c. The world of human interactions consists of probabilistic relationships.
d. Whereas physical laws like Newton’s laws of motion are deterministic,
the social sciences more closely resemble probabilistic causation like
that in Darwin’s theory of natural selection
e. In political science there will always be exceptions because human
beings are not deterministic robots whose behaviors always conform
to law like statements.
6. What are variables? What features do they have?
a. Variable – a definable quantity that can take on two or more values
b. Variables have labels and values.
i. The variable label is a description of what the variable is
ii. The variable values are the denominations in which the
variable occurs
7. What are independent variables? How are they related to dependent
variables? Know how to identify each in a theory or hypothesis.
a. Independent variable (X) – a variable that is theorized to cause
variation in the dependent variable (Y)
b. The IV causes the DV
c. Hypothesis: Mitt’s Romney’s 47% Tape caused him not to win
i. IV: viewing of the tape
ii. DV: outcome of the election
d. Presidential coattails Theory: Republicans congressional
candidates do better in years when Republicans win presidency
i. IV: party of winning presidential candidate
ii. DV: Republican success
8. What are antecedent and intervening variables? Know how to identify
each in a theory or hypothesis.
a. X > Z > Y (X causes Z which causes Y)
b. Antecedent X
c. Intervening – Z
d. Example: Labor repression (X) tends to reduce trust in
government (Z), which in turn tends to increase the chance of a
revolution (Y)
e. Example: Incumbency (X) tends to give candidates more name
recognition (Z), which tends to increase the chances of winning
reelection (Y)
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, 9. What is a unit of analysis? Know how to identify the unit of analysis in a
theory or hypothesis.
a. A unit of analysis could be a person, a state, or a country for example.
b. The unit of analysis is the major entity that is being analyzed in a
study. It is the 'what' or 'who' that is being studied. In social science
research, typical units of analysis include individuals (most
common), groups, social organizations and social artifacts.
10. What is covariation? Why is it important for science?
a. Covariation = correlation
b. Certain values of X systematically cooccurring with values of Y
11. What is a theory? Where do they come from? How do we evaluate their
merit?
a. A theory is a set of variables.
b. Theories come from questions we have about the world around us
c. Causal theory can be developed via deduction or induction
i. Deduction
1. Theory > Empirics
ii. Induction
1. Empirics > Theory
d. Identify interesting variation in the DV
e. Go from specific to general
f. Learn from previous theory
g. Formal theory
12. What is the difference between induction and deduction?
a. Induction
i. Empirics > Theory
ii. Inductive reasoning works the other way, moving from
specific observations to broader generalizations and theories.
Informally, we sometimes call this a "bottom up" In inductive
reasoning, we begin with specific observations and measures,
begin to detect patterns and regularities, formulate some
tentative hypotheses that we can explore, and finally end up
developing some general conclusions or theories.
b. Deduction
i. Theory > Empirics
ii. Deductive reasoning works from the more general to the
more specific. Sometimes this is informally called a "top-
down" approach. We might begin with thinking up a
theory about our
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