customer surveys - ANSWERSquestion consumers on future plans
direct-contact composites - ANSWERSjoint estimates obtained from salespeople or customer service
executive opinion - ANSWERSfinance, marketing, and manufacturing managers join to prepare forecast
delphi technique - ANSWERSseries of questionnaires answered anonymously by knowledgeable people;
successive questionnaires are based on information obtained from previous surveys
outside opinion - ANSWERSconsultants of other outside experts prepare forecast
time series: naive - ANSWERSnext value in a series will equal the previous value in a comparable period
time series: moving averages - ANSWERSforecast is based on an average of recent values
time series: exponential smoothing - ANSWERSsophisticated form of weighted moving average
associative models: simple regression - ANSWERSvalues of one variable are used to predict values of a
dependent variable
associative models: multiple regression - ANSWERStwo or more variables are used to predict values of a
dependent variable
technique: MAD - ANSWERSmean absolute deviation
period 1: 60
period 2: 65
, period 3: 55
period 4: 58
period 5: 64
prepare a forecast for period 6 using the naive approach - ANSWERSthe values are stable (no trend)
therefore, most recent value of the series become the next forecast: 64
period 1: 60
period 2: 65
period 3: 55
period 4: 58
period 5: 64
prepare a forecast for period 6 using the weighted average using the weights of .5(most recent)
.3
.2 - ANSWERS.2(55) + .3(58) + .5(64) = 60.4
period 1: 60
period 2: 65
period 3: 55
period 4: 58
period 5: 64
prepare a forecast for period 6 using the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 -
ANSWERS60 + .4(65-60) = 62
62 + .4(55 - 62) = 59.2
59.2 + .4(58 - 59.2) = 58.72
58.72 + .4(64 - 58.72) = 60.83
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